What’s Up, What’s Down: Crude Futures Edge Higher
Comments for Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Looking Ahead to Today by Reflecting Back at Tuesday’s Price Action
GRAINS:
Higher to sharply higher closes for soybeans, soymeal and soyoil along with corn, oats, rough rice, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. Minneapolis held its original KEY REVERSAL while KC and Chicago made new contract lows before rallying to make new KEY REVERSALS which is generally unusual to see. Corn( Dec.) rallied as high as its daily 30 cent limit before settling near limits up. Oats, rough rice and the bean complex also had strong rallies due to the threat of a freeze next week. All of the wheat are still in major downtrends but technically could be at the beginning of a turnaround. The corn crop is at least 2/3rds safe from a freeze at this time but a close over 350 would be significant technically. Most freeze scares turn out to be just scares and the crop doesn’t get affected. I think it was the early 90’s when we last had a real freeze but don’t quote me on that. Rice had a nice retracement higher but that changes nothing technically as it continues to look like it has topped out. Oats closed strong continuing to hold important lows at the 200 level basis the December contract and has been basing since late July. Beans, meal and oil could be the most affected by a freeze and Illinois along with Indiana are still far behind the other states. However, the overall trend is down and if we don’t get a freeze next week, the entire grain market will probably test its lows.
ENERGIES:
Higher for crude and heating oil along with the rbob and natural gas. All of the energies are still looking lower overall in extremely chopping action with the possible exception of natural gas which made its highest high and close in three weeks once again although closing near the lower end of today’s range. Also heating oil is in a BEAR TRIANGLE and the rbob is in a DOWN CHANNEL as evidenced below. Gas has hit a resistance area while forming a potential bottom but still in a downtrend overall
METALS:
Higher closes yesterday for copper, silver, gold and platinum. All of the metals continue to be in uptrends but copper continues to show some potential topping signs along with 27500 a key area to hold basis the December contract. Gold and silver look very strong with silver making a new recent high and close while platinum made a new contract high.
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See the balance of my morning comments, including the Metals, Softs, Energies and Grains, at my website. For my complete coverage, visit my commentary page at www.markethead.com.
Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (www.zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. If you would like a free booklet explaining the charts mentioned above, email Rick at ralexander@zaner.com.