What’s Up, What’s Down: Crude Oil and RBOB Up, Dollar Down

Comments for Tuesday, July 15

Looking Ahead to Today By Reflecting back at Monday’s price action


Higher for crude oil and natural gas while lower for the heating oil and the RBOB. The crude and RBOB look like they’re in bull pennants while the heating oil may be in a bull flag. Either way all of the energies look higher. Only the natural gas still shows signs of topping technically.


Higher closes for the Euro Fx, Swiss Euro Fx, Canadian Dollar, Aussie Dollar, Japanese Yen, British Pound while lower for the dollar Index. The euro and franc continue to look higher at this time while the yen is now showing bottoming action which could lead to a buy signal but not yet if at all. The Canadian Dollar also settled higher giving me a buy signal this time. The Aussie Dollar made a new contract high and close while the pound had its highest close since the middle of March looking very strong. The dollar index closed lower again now in a bear pennant looking very weak and acting like it will take out its contract low.


Mixed closes for the lean hogs while lower for pork bellies along with live and feeder cattle. Cattle gapped settling sharply lower now in some support but looking lower overall. Now the August contract could drop down to the 9750 area. Feeders also closed weak giving me a sell signal. The August hog contract closed higher while the other hog contracts settled lower. There are 2 gaps below and 1 above to complicate matters. There is resistance over 7625 up to 7875 and, although I still have a buy signal, longs should move at least part of their stops up to 7367 to play it safe for now. Bellies also closed lower still looking very bearish overall.


Higher for silver, gold and copper while lower for platinum. Copper is still in a possible topping formation with support at the 360 area basis the September contract. Platinum continues to look lower basically in at the lower end of a trading range started last March. Gold and silver also settled higher again both making new recent highs and closes.

SOFTS 07/15

LUMBER: Lumber closed mixed again still trying to bottom in what is a bear market.

ORANGE JUICE: Orange juice closed higher with good support under 12500 basis the September contract continuing to look higher overall.

COCOA: Cocoa closed lower but has little support down to 2800 and is still in a bear pennant.

COTTON: Cotton settled slightly lower now in what looks like a bear triangle looking to continue lower overall.

COFFEE: Coffee settled higher for the 3rd day in a row along with a failed bear pennant. There is good support from 14000 down to 13500 basis the September contract. Really no position should be taken either way at this time.

SUGAR: Sugar closed lower again but is in a bull triangle looking strong overall. However, since the formation is just about past the 2/3rds point towards the apex this formation is just about over as far as trusting it. There is support around the 1300 area and resistance over 1450 basis the October contract.


Lower closes for the cash and dow futures along with the S&P’s, Nasdaq and Nikkei again. The dow making a new contract low and close while the S&P’s made a new contract low close and the Nasdaq is in a bear pennant. The Nikkei had its lowest low and close since the end of March. Needless to say all of the indicies continue to look lower overall with 3 major reports due today.


Lower for rough rice soybeans, soymeal, bean oil, oats, corn, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. All of wheat continue to look lower overall although wheat are at or near support areas at this time and are not in good places to take a short position. Corn settled lower for the 6th out of the last 7 trading sessions with little support down to the 650-600 area basis the December contract. Oats closed sharply higher this time but still forming a possible top with good support under 425 basis the December contract. Oats closed lower and are still bullish overall with a possible top forming at this time. Rough rice also settled lower looking very bearish overall in what looks like a bear triangle. Beans, meal had weak closes and are still bullish overall witht the meal still leading the way.

Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (www.zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. Email Rick at ralexander@zaner.com or call toll-free (888) 281-4158.