What’s Up, What’s Down: Crude Oil, RBOB, Heating Oil, and Natural Gas All Up
Looking Ahead to Today By Reflecting back at Monday’s price action
ENERGIES:
Higher closes for natural gas along with crude and heating oil and the RBOB one again. All of the energies continue to look higher. Natural gas still has a KEY REVERSAL in place while in a bull pennant and a very bullish market overall.
CURRENCIES:
Higher closes for the for the Canadian Dollar and dollar index while lower for the British Pound, Aussie Dollar, Euro Fx, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. The euro and franc continue their sideways pattern since May. Generally the longer the sideways pattern the greater the breakout when it occurs. The yen has been working lower since its highs back on March 17th showing little signs of turning around. The Canadian Dollar settled higher this time needing to close over 9900 and still forming a possible bottom. The Aussie Dollar is in a bull pennant. It still in a good resistance but acting like it will test its highs. The pound is relatively close to a buy signal but has been in a downward bias overall since March. The dollar closed lower again slowly settling into a sideways pattern but generally making higher highs and lows also since March.
MEATS:
Sharply higher closes for live and feeder cattle along with lean hogs and pork bellies. A new contract high and close for cattle once again while feeders had their best close in two weeks helped by lower corn prices. Feeders closed higher for the seventh trading session in a row as its retracement rally continues fueled today by lower corn prices. Now the feeders act like they will test their highs especially after closing over 11250 basis the August contract. Hogs also closed strong now in a good resistance area needing to close over 7875 basis the July contract. Bellies also settled higher but continue to struggle looking lower and needing to close over 7500 basis the July contract to show signs of turning around.
INTEREST RATES:
FOMC MEETING DAY ONE. Lower settlements for the eurodollars, bonds and notes this time. All of the financials continue to look lower.
INDICES:
Higher for the Nikkei while lower closes for the cash and dow futures along with the S&Ps and Nasdaq. The cash and dow futures had their lowest lows and closes since March again. All of the indices including the Nikkei (in a bear pennant) continue to look lower overall.
GRAINS:
Higher closes for Minneapolis wheat, oats, rough rice and corn while lower for Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with soybeans, soymeal and bean oil. Minneapolis, KC and Chicago wheat continue to look higher. Corn, while still bullish, is showing some retracement signs and needs to hold 717 3/4 basis the July contract.
Oats settled higher again and has held its support area so at the 400 area. Also oats have been making higher highs and lows since the end of May. Rough rice settled higher again still trying to form a bottom. Soybeans, meal and oil settled lower again still looking higher overall but showing some weakness lately.
SOFTS 06/24
LUMBER: Lumber closed lower and is now in a support area that goes down to 255 basis the September contract. My buy signal is now being challenged.
ORANGE JUICE: Orange juice closed one tick lower basis the September contract. Good support at the 11000. This is still a bear market overall.
COCOA: Cocoa made a new contract high but a slightly lower close this time.
COTTON: Cotton closed lower but forming a possible bottom and needing to hold the 8000 area basis the September contract.
COFFEE: Coffee closed slightly lower double topping at 14850 basis the September contract, but looking very bullish at this time.
SUGAR: Sugar made a new recent high before closing lower in reversal type action but should still continue up the 1350 area basis the October contract. Sugar also needs to hold the 1250 area.
Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (www.zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. Email Rick at ralexander@zaner.com or call toll-free (888) 281-4158.