What’s Up, What’s Down: Dollar Continues to Fall

Comments for Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Looking Ahead to Today by Reflecting Back at Tuesday’s Price Action


Higher closes for soybeans, soymeal and soyoil while lower for rough rice, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with oats. Minneapolis, KC and Chicago made new contract lows and closes once again all obviously looking very bearish during harvest time. Corn (Dec.) flirted once again with the 300 area (302) before having a small rally to close higher. Corn has good resistance from 325 to at least 335 which will be tough to penetrate and is going to have to rely on the bean complex for any rallies unless we see drastic changes in the weather outlook! I expect corn to test 300 where many stops should reside below. Rice made its highest high since November ’08 before breaking sharply to close 20 cents lower in reversal type action. However, its long-term trend is still higher overall. Oats continue to fade with a lower close for the 6th trading session in a row still at the lower end of a support area. The bean complex closed higher this time with the beans, meal and oil making new recent lows first in reversal type action. However, the bean complex is still in a solid down-trend at this time.

Spring Wheat Chart


Higher closes yesterday for the British pound, Aussie dollar, Euro Fx, Swiss franc and Japanese yen while lower for the Canadian dollar and dollar index. The euro and franc settled sharply higher making new recent highs and closes finally breaking out of their respective consolidation patterns. The yen also had a strong close looking to continue higher overall while the Canadian dollar settled lower after making a new recent high but still in an uptrend overall. The pound and Aussie dollar settled higher with the former needing to close over 16500 (Dec.) to give me a new buy signal. Of course, the pound is still in a long-term uptrend. The Aussie dollar made a new recent high and close acting very bullish. The dollar made a new contract low and close looking like it’s heading towards a free fall!

Euro Chart

Swiss franc Chart

Free download of my report, Trading the New Mini-Gold and Silver Futures, available at: https://www.zaner.com/3.0/ralex1.asp.

See the balance of my morning comments, including the Metals, Softs, Energies and Grains, at my website. For my complete coverage, visit my commentary page at www.markethead.com.

Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (www.zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. If you would like a free booklet explaining the charts mentioned above, email Rick at ralexander@zaner.com.