What’s Up, What’s Down: Dollar Weakens; Crude Extends Losses

Comments for Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Looking Ahead to Tuesday by Reflecting Back on Monday’s Price Action


For the second trading session in a row higher for the Japanese yen and dollar index while lower for the Aussie dollar, Euro Fx, Swiss franc, British pound and Canadian dollar. The euro has been losing some steam but still in a long term uptrend and did rally to close near it’s session’s highs along with the franc. The franc is still in a good resistance area still hanging on to my sell signal. The yen made its highest high since June 1st still in an uptrend. The Canadian dollar made its lowest low since May 18th continuing to hold a support area around 8600 but still in a downtrend overall. The pound and Aussie dollar settled lower again with the former making its lowest low and close in a month while the latter needs to stay above 7800 basis the September contract. The dollar another higher close still holding the 8000 area basis the September contract. The dollar is in a long term downtrend but has been basing since the beginning of June. Buy Signals for Aussie $, Yen and Pound; Sell Signals for the Swiss franc and Canadian $.

US Dollar Chart


Higher settlement for the eurodollar, unchanged for the notes while lower for the bonds. All of the indices continue to trend higher overall with the eurodollar making a new contract high close again while the bonds and notes have leveled off over the last week of trading but still look higher in the short term. Buy Signals for Bonds and Notes.

T-Bond Futures Chart


Lower close yesterday for natural gas, crude and heating oil along with the rbob. Crude, heat and the rbob closed lower for the 5th trading session in a row while natural gas made a new contract low and close down for the 6th session in a row. I hold Sell Signals for all four energy contracts.

Natural Gas Chart

See the balance of my morning comments, including the Metals, Softs, Energies and Grains, at my website. For my complete coverage, visit my commentary page at www.markethead.com.

Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (www.zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. If you would like a free booklet explaining the charts mentioned above, email Rick at ralexander@zaner.com.