What’s Up, What’s Down: Dollar Weakens, Gold Higher

Comments for Monday, July 20, 2009

Looking Ahead to Monday by Reflecting Back on Friday’s Price Action


Higher settlements last Friday for the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and dollar index while lower for the Aussie dollar, British pound, euro fx and Japanese yen. The euro and franc have been picking up momentum trading near the upper end of their long term consolidation patterns with the former in a bull pennant and the latter a bull flag. The Canadian dollar’ closed slightly higher still at the beginning of a resistance area but still should work higher overall. The yen settled lower needing to hold the 10600 (Sept.) area. The pound and the Aussie dollar settled lower still in resistance areas and, like the euro and Swiss, are at the upper end of their respective resistance areas. However, the latter is in a bull flag. The dollar closed higher but is now in a bear flag and should make new contract lows soon.

British Pound Chart


Reports Today: Export Inspections & Crop Progress. Higher closes for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with rice, corn, soybeans, soymeal, soyoil and oats while lower for rough rice. All of the wheat settled higher but I still don’t have a buy signal for Minneapolis. However, it is in a bull pennant at this time and should work higher in at least the near term. Corn came within once tick from its contract low before managing to stage a rally and settle higher. There should be a retracement rally at least early next week. Rice closed lower again but is still in a bull pennant, looking to continue higher overall. Oats settled higher while still in a large consolidation area. The trend is down but is also forming a potential bottom at the same time. The bean complex settled higher lower with beans and oil trying to base but meal is in a down channel at seen below.

soybean Chart


Higher closes copper, gold, silver and platinum. Copper is still in an uptrend continuing to act like it will test its highs after getting through its last resistance area. Gold now acts like it will reverse my sell signal while silver is still in a downtrend but at a resistance area. Platinum closed higher again with resistance around the 120 area basis the October contract.

Copper Chart

See the balance of my morning comments, including the Metals, Softs, Energies and Grains, at my website. For my complete coverage, visit my commentary page at www.markethead.com.

Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (www.zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. If you would like a free booklet explaining the charts mentioned above, email Rick at ralexander@zaner.com.