What’s Up, What’s Down: Gold Higher, Greenback Falls

Comments for Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Looking Ahead to Tuesday by Reflecting Back on Monday’s Price Action


Higher settlements Monday for the Aussie dollar, Euro Fx, Swiss franc, British pound and Canadian dollar while lower for the Japanese yen and dollar index. The euro and franc have been losing some steam while in consolidation areas both with similar patterns that started around the beginning of June. Long term their trends are still higher but I don’t really have a signal in either direction at this point in time.

On the other hand the Canadian dollar’s close might be the beginning of a rally to the 8800 level and I feel it’s best to take profits at this time if short. The pound and Aussie dollar settled higher after nice rallies from being lower on the day but still look toppy overall. However, expect some kind of rally off today’s action. The dollar closed down but still holding the 8000 area basis the September contract while in a long term downtrend overall. However, the dollar has also been basing (consolidating) since the beginning of June. Buy Signal for the Yen; Sell Signal for the Aussie dollar.

British Pound Chart

Aussie Dollar Chart


Higher closes yesterday for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with rough rice, oats, corn while lower for soybeans, soymeal and soyoil. All of the wheat closed strong with Minneapolis making a new recent low first in reversal type action and KC with Chicago wheat giving me buy signals albeit off of small technical formations. Corn settled slightly higher still looking very weak overall. Rough rice made another strong close breaking out and giving me a buy signal. Oats also closed higher with a strong rally off its lows now forming a potential bottoming signal. The bean complex had a weak close with the beans, meal and oil still looking lower. New crop beans are in a bear flag as shown below. Buy Signals for Wheat along with Rice; Sell signals for Soybean complex and Corn.

Wheat Chart

Rice T-Note Chart

Soybean T-Note Chart


Higher settlements for copper, gold, silver and platinum. Copper is still in an uptrend overall but came very close to giving me a sell signal last week. Although gold and silver closed higher they still should work lower overall with the latter making a new recent low. My long term objective for silver is still 1100 basis the September contract. Platinum held Monday’s low to close higher looking oversold at this point.

Gold Chart

See the balance of my morning comments, including the Metals, Softs, Energies and Grains, at my website. For my complete coverage, visit my commentary page at www.markethead.com.

Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (www.zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. If you would like a free booklet explaining the charts mentioned above, email Rick at ralexander@zaner.com.