What’s Up, What’s Down: Higher Closes for Crude Oil, Dollar Index, Copper and Silver
Comments for Thursday, July 31
Looking Ahead to Today By Reflecting back at Wednesday’s price action
GRAINS
Higher settlements for corn, soymeal and Kansas City wheat while lower for Chicago and Minneapolis wheat, rough rice, oats, soymeal and bean oil. All of wheat continues to look lower still holding their respective support areas, although at the lower end of the range in critical areas. Minneapolis wheat continues trading in narrow ranges since July 9th which has been a far cry from previous action. Corn closed higher for the 4th consecutive trading session as its retracement rally continues towards the 650 area basis the December contract. This market should soon start working lower with 550, its next objective.
Oats closed lower consolidating over the last week and one half needing to hold the 400 area basis the December contract. Rough rice settled with its lowest close since March, looking very weak overall. Beans and oil made their lowest lows since May and meal since June, continuing to look lower overall.
ENERGIES
Higher closes for crude and heating oil, along with, the rbob,and natural gas, with most of the energies making recent lows first. It will be interesting to see what kind of follow through, if any, that they will have after today’s action. Be careful of sharp retracement rallies, but I do feel the highs are now in place for quite a while.
Natural gas is just plain bearish with little support down to the 8500 area basis the September contract, but long overdue for some kind of retracement.
MEATS
Higher for live and feeder cattle, along with, lean, hogs and the August pork bellies, while lower for the February contract. Cattle still are in a downtrend although there is still a double bottom in the August contract and the December contract had a failed bear pennant setting the cattle up for possible retracement type action.
Feeders had higher closes but looking lower especially in the October contract which is now in heavy resistance. Hogs closed higher, still looking bullish in the August contract with a double top still in place and lower for the December contract. The same could be said for the August and February bellies
METALS
Higher for copper and silver, while lower for gold and platinum. Copper still should be sold on rallies. Call me for details! Gold closed weak with support down around the 900 level basis the December contract. Silver should continue lower, also it’s in a strong support area, making it difficult to take a position that you can feel comfortable with. Platinum closed lower also looking bearish with no discernible support below.
CURRENCIES
Higher for the Canadian Dollar and dollar index while lower for the Swiss Franc, Euro Fx, British Pound, Japanese Yen and Aussie Dollar. The euro and franc continue looking lower while the yen barely continues to hold at the lower end of its sideways trading range, since early June in a bear market overall. The Canadian Dollar finally had a higher close but still acts like it’s headed towards the 9700 area basis the September contract, while now in a bear pennant.
The pound made a new recent low before settling still in an uptrend overall. The Aussie Dollar made a new recent low so far unable to hold the 9400 area, while forming a possible top. Higher for the dollar index once again looking like a bottom is in place.
Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (www.zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. If you would like a free booklet explaining the charts mentioned above, email Rick at ralexander@zaner.com.