What’s Up, What’s Down: Higher Crude, Lower Dollar

Comments for Monday, August 3, 2009

Looking Ahead to Today By Reflecting Back at Friday’s Price Action


Higher closes Friday for the British pound, Canadian dollar, euro fx, Aussie dollar and Swiss franc and Japanese yen while lower for the dollar index. All of the currencies continue to be in uptrends with the euro and franc making new recent high closes now both at the upper end of their consolidation patterns looking to possibly breakout out soon. .Then yen seems to be in a not perfect down channel but holding a support area so far. The Canadian dollar made a new recent high close still in a strong uptrend. The pound also made a new recent high close while the Aussie dollar had a new recent high and close both poised to continue higher. Conversely, the dollar made a new recent low and close. I am holding Buy Signals for the Euro, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar’ Sell Signals for the Japanese yen and US Dollar Index.


Higher closes for the eurodollar, bonds eurodollar and notes. The eurodollar is still in a strong uptrend making another new contract close. The bonds and notes also closed higher both making new recent highs and closes with the bonds now giving me a buy signal while the notes continue holding their sell signal. Buy Signal for Bonds; but a Sell Signal for the Notes.


Higher to sharply higher settlements last Friday for crude and heating oil along with the rbob while lower for natural gas. The crude and heat gave me buy signals today joining the rbob while the natural gas stays a sell but is forming a potential bottom.


Higher closes for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, corn and oats while lower for rough rice. All of the wheat continue to be in downtrends overall. Corn followed through from Thursday’s sharply higher close to give me a buy signal now just needing to settle over 350 basis the December contract. Oats closed higher but still in a downtrend with strong resistance overhead(220-235 Dec.). Rice settled lower this time but still remains the strongest overall of all the grains. The bean complex settled higher with a nice follow through from Thursday’s action. Now oil is very close to a buy signal.

See the balance of my morning comments, including the Metals, Softs, Energies and Grains, at my website. For my complete coverage, visit my commentary page at www.markethead.com.

Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (www.zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. If you would like a free booklet explaining the charts mentioned above, email Rick at ralexander@zaner.com.