Why I Expect More Selling Today

Friday left the day red, also closed the week red on the broader markets.
Daily volume for the NYSE and Nasdaq were lighter on Friday, the week was higher though. But remember last week we did have the holiday so it was partial week to compare against, however it was the highest volume on the NYSE since the week of September 10th which makes it significant. The Nasdaq put in the highest volume week since October 22nd.

The week also left bearish economic data throughout the week. However our losses on the week were pretty small given the day after day release of disappointing economic data. The week ahead will also be volatile off data released. The biggest data is to come on Friday (jobs data). But the prior days will also hold some volatility and importance leading into Friday. Stock index futures also roll over this week (Thursday) to the March (H) 2007 contract.

Crude fell 72 cents on the day to close at $62.41 on the day. Hurricane season official came to an end on Friday. The harsh forecast proved to be off base and the 2006 season gave the seas and coastal cities more of a whisper of wind than anything harsh (thank goodness). Gold fell down $2.30 to close at $650.60.

Monday we will look for further upside and then some retracement. The final run off the lows on Friday tells me we have some upside before the downside into Monday. However overall I think we will retest last weeks lows. Monday there is no economic data and that could prove to be our quietest day of the week. So Monday we will look for any weakness to sell into it and stay nimble. Remember to keep risks low and know there will be narrow days and expansion days, at this moment I am not foreseeing Monday as a big expansion day. So early strength I’ll be suspect of and watch for any weakness to see us pullback.

Economic Data for the Week of December 4-8: Monday nothing due to be released, Tuesday 08:30 Productivity-Rev., 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:00 ISM Services, Wednesday 10:30 Crude Inventories, Thursday 08:30 Initial Claims, 03:00 Consumer Credit, Friday 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls, 08:30 Unemployment Rate, 08:30 Hourly Earnings, 08:30 Average Workweek, 10:00 Mich Sentiment Prel.

Some earnings for the week of December 4-8: Monday pre market NRGY and after the close CMTL, CNQR. Tuesday pre market AZO, KR, TOL, WWE and after the bell NOVL, PLAB. Wednesday pre market BTH and after the bell ABM, DDMX, NCS, SEAC, UTI, VTS. Thursday pre market AHCI, CRMT, CIEN, FILE, JOSB, MOV, TOPT, TTC, and after the bell ATW, CENT, CMOX, ESL, NSM, SHFL, PAY. Friday pre market BKRS.

ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Monday’s pivot is 1397.5, weekly pivot is 1396. A move up into 1404.25 will be closely watched and any weakness there we’ll look for a short setup. A move through 1404.25 I’d look for 1408.75 and even 1411.25. A move down into 1395.75 would lead me to look for 1390.50. Intra day Support: 1395.75, 1394.25, 1390.50, 1386.25 and 1379.75. Resistance: 1402.50, 1404.25, 1408.75, 1411.25. 60 minute chart is below.

NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Monday’s pivot is 1780.50, weekly pivot is 1789. Intra day Support: 1775, 1772.50, 1768.50, 1765.5 and 1762.50. Resistance: 1788, 1795.75, 1803.75, 1809.75, 1815, 1820.25. 60 minute chart is below.

I hope everyone has a great week!

Teresa Appleton has traded equities and options for
nine years and futures for seven. She is founder and CEO of TradeLogic, LLC. For
more information about Teresa and the training she offers stock, options and
futures traders,

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