Why I Stress This Combination
Both major markets have probed
south of their respective daily trend supports, continuing Friday’s closing
intraday 13 & 60 minute downtrends. As
we discussed in last week’s columns, getting the 13, 60, and daily all aligned
to the south — given the weakening price vs. momentum divergences on the daily
— was the needed ticket for a short bias for anything more than scalps into the
daily uptrend, and the market has cooperated nicely. Friday afternoon’s break of
the 13 and resolution of the 13 vs. 60 conflict provided short potential down to
the daily, and this morning’s break of the daily continued the game.
I’ve highlighted the daily price vs. momentum divergence below, which as we’ve
discussed ad infinitum over the last few years, typically trades toward trend
support, which then remains in a “Trust Until Broken” mode until the daily
finally breaks. Thus, covering Friday’s intraday shorts into the daily approach
and reopening them upon the daily break were high-probability intraday options
for those preferring to be in cash over the weekend. I’m stressing the
combination because it reflects one of the cornerstone combinations of our
educational series, and has always been one of my personal favorites as it
provides ample heads-up notice.
Intraday strength divergences into any further downtrend extensions can help
guide the closing of any remaining short-term short positions.
Transitions
As Larry Connors mentioned in his
weekend piece, we’ll be shifting the timing of this column from daily
(Saturday) to weekly, effective after today. At this end, the shift will
provide me with some needed flexibility and R&R as we head into the slower
summer days — and yes, there’s truth to the report that the sun is still out
there for those in the Northeast wetlands — not to mention time for a
regularly scheduled lunch for the first time in two years.
As I’ve mentioned a few times in the past, I remain humbled by and gracious for
the strong response to the daily column over the past few years. What began as a
modest effort of sharing my candid trading thoughts via a QQQ column in response
to Larry Connors’ invitation, evolved and expanded into a two-year daily
dialogue on multiple index vehicles, dispelling a plethora of industry myths,
and sharing my strongly-held beliefs of what trading is and isn’t about in this
hype-deafening business that will continue to chew up the majority of those who
attempt its pursuit, and which will humble 100% from time to time.
And I do mean dialogue, for the discussion has indeed been two-way as
reflected in an email in-box count from column readers and course students that
has exceeded a staggering
2,200
since June 2001.
But alas, I’m not going anywhere or abandoning the pen as we simply shift
format. In addition to continuing to follow market rhythms — including
longer-term perspectives — we’ll continue our mission of assisting in the
ongoing development of self-sufficient traders and focusing on simpler trading
alternatives.
ES (S&P)Â Â Â
   Â
Monday June 23, 2003 11:30 AM ETÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â NQ
(Nasdaq)
Moving Avg Legend:
15MA 60-Min 15MA
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School and
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Charts ©
2002 Quote LLC
I look forward to continuing our dialogue on
Saturday. Until then…
Good Trading!