Will Platinum Reach $1,000?

Technical Outlook

BONDS (JUN) 03/11/04: With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. Near-term resistance for bonds is at 115.24 and then again at 116.01, while swing support hits at 115.04 and below there at 114.25. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Studies are showing positive momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The next upside target is 116.01. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels.

T-NOTES(JUN) Momentum studies are trending higher, but have entered overbought levels. The near-term upside objective is at 116.12. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The major trend is down with the cross over back below the 40-day moving average. Near-term resistance for the T-Notes is at 116.06 and then again at 116.12, while swing support hits at 115.26 and below there at 115.19. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels.

STOCK INDICES RECAP

3/10/2004

The stock market slid aggressively as the macro economic outlook continues to deteriorate and investors saw the European market slide because of valuation fears. Some traders expressed concerns that the Thursday morning report on retail sales is expected to be weak and that could foster ideas that the growth pattern in the US is really in question. Some traders even suggested that the March 11th washout anniversary prompted selling but that is a suspect opinion. If the economy is slowing then stock prices are right to see values slide and until the pendulum shifts the bear camp has a more conclusive story.

Technical Outlook

S&P500 (JUN) 03/11/04: The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number. Underlying support comes in at 1108.50 and 1102.50, with overhead resistance at 1130.50 and 1146.50. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. Daily stochastics are trending lower, but have declined into oversold territory. The next downside objective is now at 1102.50. With a reading under 30, the 9-day RSI is approaching oversold levels.

S&P E-Mini (JUN): Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The next downside objective is 1102.19. There could be some early pressure today given the market’s negative setup with the close below the 2nd swing support. The market back below the 40-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend could be turning down. Near-term resistance for the S&P Mini is at 1130.63 and then again at 1146.69, while swing support hits at 1108.38 and below there at 1102.19. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. The market is approaching over sold levels on an RSI reading under 30.

NASDAQ (JUN) The outside day down and close below the previous day’s low is a negative signal. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. The market should run into resistance at 1433.50 and above there at 1459.75 with support at 1398.50 and 1389.75. The 9-day RSI under 30 indicates the market is approaching oversold levels. Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The next downside target is 1389.8.

MINI DOW (JUN) The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The market should run into resistance at 10349 and above there at 10511 with support at 10129 and 10071. Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The next downside target is 10071. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. The 9-day RSI under 30 indicates the market is approaching oversold levels.

CURRENCY MARKET RECAP

3/10/2004

Another impressive pulse up in the Dollar seems to be coming off ideas that foreign economic conditions are also deteriorating and that the US with a relative low currency might be the best positioned to weather another minor slowdown. The trade is also hammering the Euro because many now suspect that the ECB is going to be forced to cut interest rates. The most surprising development of the session came with the Yen gaining in the face of US Dollar gains and that has to dismay the BOJ.

Technical Outlook

YEN (JUN): The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. Swing resistance is targeted at 90.70 and above there at 90.87, with the yen finding support around 90.26 and below there at 89.99. The close under the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend could be turning down. Daily stochastics are showing positive momentum from oversold levels which should reinforce a move higher if near-term resistance is taken out. The next upside target is 90.87.

EURO (JUN): Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The near-term upside objective is at 1.2351. The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number. Swing support for the Euro comes in at 1.2083, with overhead resistance at 1.2351. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The major trend is down with the cross over back below the 40-day moving average. The gap down on the day session chart is bearish with more selling pressure possible today.

PRECIOUS METALS RECAP

3/10/2004

The gold market fashioned a big range with a weak close and it certainly appeared as if gold was under direct pressure as a result of the rise in the Dollar. The gold market could have been supported by concern that the German Central Bank might not have support for a proposed gold sale plan but it is clear that the action in the Dollar trumped all other fundamentals in the action Wednesday. The silver market seemed to see some roll over action as traders moved from the March to the May contract and in the process generally ignored the action in the Dollar. The platinum market was the stalwart performer in the metals complex with prices looking like they are headed to the headline level of $1,000 an ounce.

Technical Outlook

SILVER (MAY): With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. Initial support for silver is at 709.5 and below there at 700.5 with resistance likely at 720.3 and 727.5. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. Studies are showing positive momentum, but are now in overbought territory so some caution is warranted. The next upside target is 720.3. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels. A new contract high was made on the rally.

GOLD (APR): Support for gold today comes in near 394.80, while resistance is pegged at 406.00. Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The near-term upside objective is at 406.00. The market’s close below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average.

COPPER MARKET RECAP

3/10/2004

The copper market managed to respect 127 support on the charts and that appeared to discourage ongoing stop loss selling. Apparently the trade thinks that demand remains intact and that supply has continued to tighten and that the recent lows represent some type of fair value. Indeed the LME copper stocks have continued to decline but for US copper to hold up in the face of an extending Dollar rally means that the gains Wednesday were very impressive. With continued weakness in US equity prices and ongoing concern for the growth in the Euro zone many demand bulls are less interested in pursuing the long side than they were several weeks ago.

ENERGY MARKET RECAP

3/10/2004

The energy complex was slightly weakened by the weekly inventory readings with the most damaging development being the rise in US crude stocks. We also think that a slight rise in the refinery-operating rate contributed to the slight selling pressure in crude. With US gasoline stocks falling moderately in the DOE inventory report we doubt that unleaded will see sustained selling interest. The trade is seeing some negative price concerns off the argument that OPEC might not make as big of a production cut as was previously promised or threatened.

Technical Outlook

CRUDE OIL (APR): The market’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. Support for crude is keyed on 35.75 and below there at 35.34, with resistance pegged at 36.45 and 36.74. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing support. The next downside objective is now at 35.34.

UNLEADED GAS (APR): Negative momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The next downside target is 103.34. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. Resistance today is at 109.54, while support should be found around 103.34. The daily closing price reversal up is positive. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The cross over and close above the 40-day moving average indicates the longer-term trend has turned up.

HEATING OIL (APR):The market’s close below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. Heating oil should encounter support around 85.34, with resistance is at 90.54. Daily studies pointing down suggests selling minor rallies. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The next downside objective is now at 85.34.

CORN MARKET RECAP

3/10/2004

The lack of new buying interest on the move to higher on the session and weakness in soybeans contributed to the long liquidation into the close and the close near the low. The USDA Supply/Demand report this morning was very neutral against trade expectations but the lower opening was triggered by negative news in the soybean area. Ending stocks for the 2003/2004 season are now pegged at 901 million bushels, unchanged from last month and right on the average trade estimate for the report. The range of estimates was 841-951 million bushels. World ending stocks for corn were pegged at 67.79 million tons from 67.23 million tons last month, 102.88 million last year and 128.6 million two years ago. World production and world consumption were revised higher by near 2 million tons which was seen as a positive development after the recent problems with bird flu. Taiwan importers bought 42,000 tons and 20,000 tons of US corn overnight. Deliveries this morning were 737 lots with a strong commercial stopper noted. Registrations with the CBOT were reported at 1,308 lots as compared with 1.407 lots late on Monday. Weekly export sales, released before the opening, are expected to come in near 600,000-800,000 tons as compared with 404,900 tons last week at this time.

Technical Outlook

CORN (MAY) 03/11/04: Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are taken out. The next downside objective is now at 293 1/2. The market’s close below the pivot swing number is a mildly negative setup. Market resistance comes in at 305 today, with support at 293 1/2. The downside crossover (9 below 18) of the moving averages suggests a developing short-term downtrend. The daily closing price reversal down puts the market on the defensive.

SOY COMPLEX RECAP

3/10/2004

The close back under 924 for May soybeans and at the low end of the 36 cent range might leave the market under the negative technical influence of last weeks weekly and daily reversals and leaves the market vulnerable to long liquidation selling ahead. The USDA reports were considered bearish against trade expectations as the USDA dropped Brazil production to 59.5 million tons from 61 million last month but traders were expecting a crop near 55-57 million tons. Funds were noted sellers of at least 2000 contracts. The US Supply/demand numbers were modified slightly but ending stocks were left unchanged at 125 million bushels. Exports were revised lower by 10 million bushels and crush was revised higher by 10 million bushels. The Argentina production forecast was also unchanged. World ending stocks are now pegged at 35.88 million tons from 37.47 million tons last month, and 39.27 million for last year. The world stocks/usage for soybeans came in at 17.8% which is near the high end of the last 20-year range. This is in sharp contrast to the US situation where ending stocks are pegged at a 27 year low. The higher crush caused the oil and meal production estimates to increase. While oil production was revised higher by 55 million pounds, domestic oil consumption was revised higher by 50 million pounds. As a result, ending stocks are now pegged at 1.011 billion pounds as compared with 1.006 last month, 1.491 billion pounds last year and 2.358 billion pounds for the 2001/2002 season. Meal ending stocks were pegged at 200,000 tons, unchanged from last month as the higher production was offset by a 150 million ton increase in domestic usage. China import demand for soybeans was revised to 21.5 million tons from 23.0 million last month. The market found some underlying support from news of long waiting times at Brazil ports to load soybeans and from continued light concerns of too much rain into the weekend. Weekly export sales, released before the opening, are expected to come in near -75,000 to +200,000 tons for soybeans, 0-50,000 tons for meal and 0-5,000 tons for oil.

Technical Outlook

SOYBEANS (MAY) 03/11/04: The outside day down and close below the previous day’s low is a negative signal. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. The next area of resistance is around 941 1/2 and 967 3/4, while 1st support hits today at 905 1/2 and below there at 895 3/4. The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Negative momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The next downside target is 895 3/4. Short-term indicators on the defensive. Consider selling an intraday bounce.

MEAL (MAY): Momentum studies are trending lower from high levels which should accelerate a move lower on a break below the 1st swing support. The next downside objective is now at 272.6. The outside day down is a negative signal. The daily closing price reversal down puts the market on the defensive. First resistance comes in at 285.7, with support at 275.7. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The market’s close below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. Daily studies pointing down suggests selling minor rallies.

BEAN OIL (MAY): The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Negative momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The next downside target is 31.46. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. Daily swing resistance is found at 32.98 and above there at 33.76. Support should be encountered at 31.83 and 31.46. Short-term indicators on the defensive. Consider selling an intraday bounce.

WHEAT MARKET RECAP

3/10/2004

The lack of new buying support after the mostly neutral USDA report news helped trigger another round of long liquidation selling and a break-out below the December lows for old crop futures and below the December lows for new crop July wheat. The oversold condition of the market and some light short-covering helped support the bounce off of the lows. May wheat traded at the lowest level since October 22nd. The USDA report was considered neutral to slightly negative to the market as tightening world ending stocks were offset by slightly higher ending stocks for the US. The USDA pegged ending stocks at 544 million bushels as compared with 534 million bushels last month, 491 million last year and 777 million bushels for the 2001/2002 season. The only change in the US report was a reduction of 10 million bushels in food consumption (Atkins diet impact) to 900 million bushels. Food consumption last year was 918 million bushels and 926 million the previous year. Traders were disappointed that the USDA left the export forecast unchanged in spite of the recent buying spree. World ending stocks are pegged at 124.93 million tons (lowest since 1981/82) from 125.95 million tons as last months estimate and compared with 166.26 million for the 2002/2003 season. Significant changes in the world report include a drop of 4.2 million tons in India wheat production to 65.1 million tons and an increase in Australia production of .50 million tons to 25 million. In overnight export activity, Egypt bought 175,000 tons of wheat with 55,000 tons of the total as US hard red winter and the remainder coming from Australia. South Korea bought 22,000 tons of US wheat overnight. Weather forecasts for increasing chances of rain in the plains into the weekend and early next week may have added to the bearish tone as the focus of attention seems to be shifting to the new crop situation and the prospects for an enormous jump in world production for 2004. Weekly export sales, released before the opening, are expected to come in near 300,000-600,000 tons as compared with 1.0627 million tons last week.

Technical Outlook

WHEAT (MAY) 03/11/04: Short-term indicators on the defensive. Consider selling an intraday bounce. The swing indicator gave a moderately negative reading with the close below the 1st support number. Look for near-term support at 360 and below there at 354 1/2, with resistance levels at 372 and 378 . The market’s close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The next downside target is 354 1/2.

LIVE CATTLE RECAP

3/10/2004

April cattle closed limit-up (up 300 to 82.42) with active fund and commercial buying noted as beef and cash markets continue in a steep uptrend and the market remains at a stiff discount to the cash market. News that cash bids had jumped to $87, up $2.00 from last week was enough to trigger a surge in buying in the April futures. Cash cattle traded at $88, up $3.00 from last week and with surging beef prices of the past two weeks, packer profit margins have also improved. Boxed-beef cut-out values were up 46 cents to $144.08 as compared with $139.33 last week at this time.

Technical Outlook

CATTLE (APR) 03/11/04: The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The next upside target is 84.25. Since the close was above the 2nd swing resistance number, the market’s posture is bullish and could see more upside follow-through early in the session. Support should be encountered at 81.20 and below there at 79.40. Market resistance is at 83.62 and then again at 84.25. The gap upmove on the day session chart is a bullish indicator for trend. The market’s close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The 9-day RSI over 70 indicates the market is approaching overbought levels.

LEAN HOGS RECAP

3/10/2004

The spring and summer months moved to new contract highs on the session finding strength from the surge in cattle and a stronger tone in the cash market. April hogs closed 35 higher on the session but down 70 off of the highs of the day as the market found little new buying on the surge above last weeks highs at 37.17. Cash markets were up 50 cents at Peoria and had a firm tone at other location with the lower slaughter and hopes of strong exports seen as supportive factors. The discount to the cash market added to the positive tone. Talk that the new proposed trade pact between Mexico and Japan would allow Mexico to export 80,000 tonnes of pork to Japan helped support the market with the idea that more pork might flow from the US to Mexico as a result of the trade pact. The buying was also limited by a lack of a bullish reaction in the bellies to the weekly cold storage report which showed a higher than expected out-movement. Weekly average weights for Iowa/Minnesota for the week ending March 6th were reported at 266.3 pounds as compared with 265.9 for the previous week and 263.3 pounds last year.

Technical Outlook

HOGS (APR) 03/11/04: It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. Resistance levels comes in at 63.17 and 63.80 today, while support is around 62.12 and then 61.70. The rally brought the market to a new contract high. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. The daily stochastics gave a bullish indicator with a crossover up. The near-term upside objective is at 63.80.

COCOA MARKET RECAP

3/10/2004

A massive slide in cocoa prices was reportedly caused by concentrated fund selling during the action Wednesday. It is also possible that a 3.8% decline in January US cocoa imports sparked the decline and with the year over year decline coming in above the 14% level one has to fear a slackening of demand for cocoa. Since industry buying was detected in the action Wednesday it is possible that many have near term needs fulfilled. In short few players seem to be interested in picking up values generated by the weak price action.

Technical Outlook

COCOA (MAY)03/11/04 There could be some early pressure today given the market’s negative setup with the close below the 2nd swing support. Cocoa should run into resistance at 1407 and above there at 1438 with support at 1362 and 1348. The 9-day RSI under 30 indicates the market is approaching oversold levels. Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The next downside target is 1348.25.

COFFEE MARKET RECAP

3/10/2004

The coffee market pushed higher and closed near the highs of the day but stayed inside of the previous sessions range. Ideas of an oversold condition after Tuesday’s collapse and the lack of new selling near Tuesday’s lows helped support. Funds were noted buyers for the session and the market seems to be receiving some support from ideas of tightness out of Brazil. In addition, traders perceive the drop-off of stocks pending review as a potential positive factor. CSCE Stocks were up 8550 bags to 4.565 million bags with 57,273 bags pending review.

Technical Outlook

COFFEE (MAY)3/11/04 The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. Negative momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The next downside objective is now at 72.55.The Coffee contract should run into resistance at 75.50 and above there at 75.95 with support at 73.8 and 72.55. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average.

SUGAR MARKET RECAP

3/10/2004

The market closed higher for the 5th session in a row with a steady flow of fund and speculative buying helping to support the uptrend. The market is finding support from questionable yield potential in certain areas of the key center-south region in Brazil and from pent-up demand from end users who have avoided new business due to high international freight rates. The UN World Food Program announced that they will be seeking to buy 210,000 metric tons of white sugar in equal installments for April, May and June delivery. Syria announced a tender to buy 26,000 tons of raw and/or white sugar. Indonesia cancelled a tender to buy 32,500 tons of white sugar for April arrival.

Technical Outlook

SUGAR (MAY) 03/11/04: It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. Swing resistance comes in at 6.40, with support found at 6.28. The market’s short-term trend is positive on a close above the 9-day moving average. Momentum studies are trending higher, but have entered overbought levels. The near-term upside objective is at 6.40. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels.

COTTON MARKET RECAP

3/10/2004

May cotton closed 62 higher on the session but could not close above the strong opening. The bullish news from the USDA supported the sharply higher opening but speculative long liquidation selling drove the market all the way below yesterday’s lows before finding support from trade houses. The USDA raised the US export forecast by 600,000 bales to a new record 13.8 million bales and also raised domestic usage by 100,000 bales. As a result, ending stocks are now pegged at 3.55 million bales as compared with 4.25 million last month, 5.38 million last year and 7.45 million bales two years ago. Weekly export sales, released before the opening, are expected to come in near 130,000-170,000 bales as compared with 159,100 bales last week. Shipments are expected to come in near 300,000-350,000 bales as compared with 318,000 bales last week. China imports were adjusted to 8.5 million bales from 7.0 million last month.

Technical Outlook

COTTON (MAY) 03/11/04: The moving average crossover down (9 below 18) indicates a possible developing short-term downtrend. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. Next resistance area comes in at 65.61 and then again at 66.63, while support is targeted at 63.66 and 62.73. Momentum studies are declining, but have fallen to oversold levels. The next downside target is 62.73. The 9-day RSI under 30 indicates the market is approaching oversold levels. The daily closing price reversal up is positive. ORANGE JUICE (MAY)3/11/04 The market has a bullish tilt coming into today’s trade with the close above the 2nd swing resistance. Orange Juice should run into resistance at 63.45 and above there at 63.85 with support at 62.15 and 61.25. The market’s short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. Negative momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The next downside objective is now at 61.25.