With The GOP Gaining Seats, Is More Tax Relief In Our Future?
BOND MARKET RECAP
11/3/2004
December Bonds closed up 0-06 at 113-14. This was
1-04 up from the low and 0-02 off the high.
December 10 Yr Treasury Notes finished up 0-020
at 113-095, 0-015 off the high and 0-225 up from the low.
The Treasury market started out under
significant pressure but managed to shake off that pressure and basically closed
near unchanged. The fact that US factory orders contracted might have given the
bonds cause to bounce and we think that Treasury prices had reached a
significant oversold condition following the election. Countervailing the soft
economic readings Wednesday morning were ISM non manufacturing readings which
were pretty much strong across the board. In the end we were a little surprised
that bonds managed to rise considering the general strength in the equity market
and the mid day weakness in energy prices.
Technical Outlook
BONDS (DEC) 11/04/2004: Negative momentum studies
in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. A negative signal
for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. With
the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly
bullish posture. The next downside target is now at 111-05. The next area of
resistance is around 114-10 and 114-30, while 1st support hits today at 112-14
and below there at 111-05.
TNOTES (DEC) 11/04/2004: Momentum studies
trending lower at mid-range should accelerate a move lower if support levels are
taken out. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term
indicator for trend. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive
setup. The next downside target is 111-310. The next area of resistance is
around 113-255 and 114-055, while 1st support hits today at 112-225 and below
there at 111-310.
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