Yet another distribution day

The New York Crimes…I mean the New York Times. I know there is a controversy
going on but let me make it simple for anyone. They are quickly becoming Al
Qaeda’s best friend. In their lust to destroy this President, they forgot to
give a crap about this country’s security. As much as I love some of the
business writers, I am done with the paper and will recommend the same for all
my listeners.

Why does the market care what the Fed says? Why should anyone care what the heck
they do? Raise rates…lower rates…stay the same. I just don’t get it. I say
this because I would not let anyone at the Fed manage my money. They are nothing
more than trend followers who cause more problems than solve. Wasn’t it these
people who said there was no inflation for the last 18 months while all of us
knew prices were going higher?

Isaiah Thomas taking over for Larry Brown…is like Beavis taking over for
Butthead…Laurel taking over for Hardy…Abbott taking over for Costello…

I know the Fed yaps Thursday…and potentially, the playing field can change. I
am just letting you know that even from Hawaii, nothing I have seen changes my
stance that we are in a bear market. In fact, the patterns I am seeing are
horrid…and more than likely, Tuesday’s action was meaningful on several
counts. First…the SOX broke to new lows. Followers of my themes know how much
emphasis I put on the SEMIS being a leading indicator for the market. Second…a
zillion stocks failed poorly into resistance. I believe OILS, GOLD and other
COMMODITIES hit a wall on this recent bounce and are most likely done. Remember
that I told you that the big buyouts we just saw in the OILS are not a sign of a
bottom…but the sign of tops. Now we see Phelps Dodge
(
PD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) buy out two other
COMMODITY companies…yikes! Third…another distribution day in the market.
This is a very negative sign especially when this latest bounce was on light
volume. Rallies should be on heavy volume. Fourth…FINANCIALS continue to roll
over.

I would love to give you some light at the end of the tunnel for the “markets”
but right now…nothing doing. Yes…there are a few names leading but not
enough to change the overall direction. I think it important that you recognize
that bear markets do not last weeks. I know many have called for a bottom on a
daily basis but in my studies of past bear markets, this one looks like it is
just in the early innings.

I did receive an email asking me when I think this ugliness will be over. In my
first report of this year, I outlined for you that it would be classic to have a
bear market this year that bottomed in the 4th quarter. Market pundits call it
the 4 year cycle low. That is one potential answer. My best guess…none. We
have shown that we don’t need to know where things will be down the road. We
just need to know what is happening now. Unfortunately, most hopeful and
optimistic investors refuse to face reality during times like this. I urge those
people to read any book by William O’Neill…Stan Weinstein’s book…The Secrets
for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets…My book…The Investors Edge…and get
a subscription to Investors Business Daily. You will get the hint very quickly.
It ‘s in the study of the characteristics of bull and bear markets that keeps
you ahead of this crazy game…not hope and prayer. I know. I have tried them
both…and they did not work.