Volatility Bands and Price Symmetry

The previous commentary, “Market Cycle Updates”, I alerted you to the next key 8.6 year Pi cycle dates/zones which are July 12 and Nov 21. The SPX closed at 2630 for that 5/4/18 commentary, and is +4.7% to the Friday close at 2755. Both the 3- and 12-month EMA’s are rising and not extremely O/B.

I also mentioned in the commentary that the trivia drones are pounding sand about the weak season from May through October, but when you observe the actual returns for all of that so called weak period during the mid-term elections since 1902 using the Dow Jones you get a different result. The Dow has been up 15 mid-term years since 1902 and down 14. However, the last 3 have been positive in 2006, 2010, and 2014, and since 1902 there has never been more than 3 straight up markets during the seasonal period. The SPX closed at 2648 04/30/18 so that is the bogey for the trivia period. It only indicates to me that you should trade what is based on the cycle and technical evidence, not what others think it should be doing.

Last week was a significant SPX bonus for those of you day trading using my Volatility Bands [standard deviation] on Monday, Tuesday, and also to less of an extent Thursday. On Monday, the -22.3 point low was in the 2.0 VB zone of -24.85 PTs, and Tuesday when the low extended to -30.68 PTs, which was beyond the -2.0 zone at -26.08 PTs. There were also many extended opportunities in many SPX stocks as you would expect.

The most profitable day trading period of the day on a consistent basis is the first hour when you get many extended volatility moves. The price patterns that many of you are familiar with from my previous manuals and Trading Service continue to be the staple for lower risk /high probability entry. I did a short 34-page power point presentation on trading volatility about 5 years ago that includes info on how to calculate the VB’s, in addition to some examples of the various price patterns and symmetry which can used in tandem with the VB’s , or without.

If you would like me to email you a free copy please request it at haggs91@yahoo.com

Kevin Haggerty