In the previous commentary, “Current Market Symmetry”, I pointed out the 10/11/17 Pi date as it was 3141 days [3.14] from the 10/6/09 670 bear market low and also the 8.6 Cycle symmetry date at 11/24-25/2017. The SPX was also extremely O/B at the highest monthly RSI 5 in our time and minus any RSI Divergences.
There was Square of 9 symmetry from the 670 low at 2823 [.25], and 2810 [.225] in addition to the Natural Square number at 2810 [53×53]. The SPX went on to make the market current high at 2873 on 1/16/18, and then reversed and has been bouncing off the 12-month EMA for the past 3 months. The 2873 high was a +7.4% run from the 2674 2017 close [12/29].
The game ended following the 2873 close and volatility increased as the SPX declined -11.9% to 2533 [2/9/18], spiked +10.2% to 2789 [2/27/18] minus 5.1% to 2647 [3/2/18], + 5.9% to 2802 [3/13/18], -8.9% to 2554 4/2/18, +6.4% to 2717 4/18/18, and minus 3.8% to 2613 on 4/25/18. The index closed at 2630 yesterday with a 2595 low. The 12-month EMA is 2589 while the less important 200-day EMA is 2610. The SPX 3-month EMA is 2647 and the index has closed below the 3-month from Feb to now, so it is a key technical indicator. The monthly 5 RSI went out at 51.8 so it is not O/S as it was at the 30 level when the SPX made the 1810 double bottom in Jan-Feb 2016.
The SPX was +19.4% in 2017 and is -1.6% YTD for 2018 as the market begins the historical weak season from May through Oct before the mark up run from Nov into year end. That is the seasonal trivia that long-term portfolio holders key on, but from a position trading standpoint we are not buy & hold investors playing the seasonal average historical return game. It is about the technical evidence not subjective opinions.
The important key low for the SPX right now is 2533 as the computer robots will slam the index if and when it breaks that level. The mid-term elections will of course be a major mitigating market factor this year and you know where I stand on that subject.
That brings us to the current important cycle dates for you to be aware of. The first is the 8.6 year cycle date 2018.528 [July 12], and then 2018.89 [Nov 21] which is the Pi cycle [3.14 yrs] date from the 2015.75 major 8.6 year cycle date.
Kevin Haggerty