A Two Day Pullback Required to Offer High Probability Edges
This could potentially be a quiet two weeks because its year end and due to last weeks rally, most funds will be looking to make sure the gains are booked. Headline news, especially from Europe and Russia are risks that are being reflected in the VIX. But the powers that be want to see this […]
Expect a Pause Within a Day or So Here
The worst weekly loss since 2012 is now followed by the best daily gain since 2011. This is what volatility looks like and until shown otherwise, the low volatility environment that was seen from 2013-June 2014 is now behind us. Intermediate level volatility doesn’t necessarily mean lower prices (see 1995-1999). What is does mean is […]
Talk About a Short Covering Rally…
9 of the 10 largest gainers in the S&P 500 yesterday were in stocks which were down over 35% over the past three months. Talk about a short covering rally… Two shocks to the system in the past 90 days and with the bull market now 5 ½ years old extra caution has to be […]
At These Levels, Caution
The VIX is up approximately 100% since Dec 5. It’s not often you see the VIX double in under two weeks but the demand for protection has skyrocketed with energy, bank lending exposure tied to energy prices, Russia, and today’s Fed meeting making for the perfect storm. If the Fed announcement today is in line […]
Being Prudent Here and Keeping Position Sizing In-Check is the Key
The overriding theme since last week is as energy prices go, so will the market go. Now there’s Russia in the picture, bank balance sheets around the world potentially exposed to loans pegged at $80 oil, along with tomorrows Fed announcement. Yellen’s policy has been to “manage volatility” and had the world’s markets been quiet […]
As Energy Prices Go, So will the Market
Extremely oversold. As energy prices go, so will the market today. Today’s Potential Opportunities on Further Pullbacks: ETFs: DIA
As Oil Moves, the Market will Move
The expected oversold bounce occurred yesterday and lasted a full 4 1/2 market hours briefly taking the market to a short-term overbought condition. The pullback that then occurred, followed by this morning’s opening pullback, will again make the market oversold. Markets tend to obsess on one item at a time and right now that one […]
This Panic Often Leads to Short-Term Bounces
Oversold combined with panic selling in oil stocks. This panic often leads to short-term bounces and we’re within a day or so of one here. Today’s Potential Opportunities on Further Pullbacks: ETFs: DIA
Hedge Fund Havoc Day
What you saw yesterday was an example of hedge fund havoc day. 4 of the 5 biggest gainers on Tuesday in the S&P 500 were stocks which had dropped over 25% in the past three months. And the largest % losers came mostly from lower volatility stocks which have risen over the same period. The […]
The Pullback May Last a Few Days
The market is slightly oversold today with most of the major index ETFs showing ConnorsRSI readings under 30. This is the first day of the pullback so it may last a few days and it provides an opportunity to begin scaling into US index ETFs. Today’s Potential Opportunities on Further Pullbacks: ETFs: QQQ
A Market of Many Knee Jerk Headline News Reactions and Rumors
The Central Banks cumulative SPX performance has the index up +12.4% YTD [H/L] and +14% from the 10/15/14 1821 low, which was reversed by the central bank manipulators following a -9.8% decline from the 2019 9/19/14 high [interesting timing I would say] The market is obviously in the strong seasonal period, but I don`t think […]
A One-Day Pullback will Provide Edges
The market is neutral today with most of the major index ETFs showing ConnorsRSI readings in the 50-70 range. A one-day pullback will provide edges to the long side. Today’s Potential Opportunities on Further Pullbacks: ETFs: QQQ