Trading Markets

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Volatility Bands and Price Symmetry

The previous commentary, “Market Cycle Updates”, I alerted you to the next key 8.6 year Pi cycle dates/zones which are July 12 and Nov 21. The SPX closed at 2630 for that 5/4/18 commentary, and is +4.7% to the Friday close at 2755. Both the 3- and 12-month EMA’s are rising and not extremely O/B. […]

Market Cycle Updates

In the previous commentary, “Current Market Symmetry”, I pointed out the 10/11/17 Pi date as it was 3141 days [3.14] from the 10/6/09 670 bear market low and also the 8.6 Cycle symmetry date at 11/24-25/2017. The SPX was also extremely O/B at the highest monthly RSI 5 in our time and minus any RSI […]

Kevin Haggerty’s Commentary for 10/13/17

The SPX made an RST monthly high in 5/2015 at 2135 with entry below the 6/2015 monthly low close at 2063 versus the long-term 8.6-year cycle date of 2015.75 and declined -15% before making a double bottom low at 1812 and 1810 in Jan and Feb 2016. The “Feds” ponzi scheme index has since advanced […]

Trader Discipline and Risk Management

The SPX hit 2401 on 3/1/17 following the election/year end markup followed by a 3-month trading range of just 3.4%. It was pushed above 2400 and hit 2446 Fri before closing at 2432. The market remains in a prolonged period of passive “so called” investing, and extreme all-time lows in volatility, yet the Fed Ponzi […]

Geometric Market Timing is the Significant Factor

The SPX made a long term RST top of 2135 in May 2015 at the 1.618 Fib Extension [2137] of the 1576-667 bear market low before declining -12.5% into the Pi Time zone of 2015.75, followed by a rally to 2116, then the final double bottom low at 1810 on 2/11/16. The index has since […]

Yellen on Hold for Clinton

The SPX is virtually unchanged at 2139 after 17 months of trading following the long-term monthly RST 2135 high on 5/15/15, with the major 5 RSI monthly negative divergence. I said that the risk reward was not positive then, and to significantly cut back long exposure on any buy and hold SPX index portfolios. I […]

Turmoil in Long Term Symmetry Time Period

The long-term monthly RST signal was triggered in June 2015 following the all time 2135 SPX high in May 2015, and buy and hold index fund investors have made nothing since then which followed my suggestion to significantly reduce equity holdings unless you planned to trade the monthly O/S conditions “if and when”. The index […]

Risk Reward Remains Negative for Longer Term Equity Exposure

***3/16/16: Due to a technical issue, a previous post was published by mistake. The correct text is now available below.*** The SPX remains in a bear market condition with the 20DEMA,<50DEMA <200DEMA [BTL]which was triggered by the long term RST sell signal following the 2135 5/15 high, and the monthly close below the May low […]

Long Term Bear Market Condition and Short Term O/S

The SPX finished 2015 at -0.7% and the major RST sell signal was triggered in June with a monthly close below the low of the high month which was May 2015, with the SPX cycle high of 2134.72 The details of the long term Pi cycle symmetry has been discussed with detail in previous commentaries […]

Teflon Market Hits Reality

The explanation of the long term RST sell trigger in June 2015 following the May 2135 cycle high was explained in detail in the previous commentary of 11/13/15, as were the details of the significant Pi cycle timing elements, so please review that commentary. The SPX made a double bottom at 1867 [8/24] and 1871.91 […]

Pi Still Rules Time and Creates Significant Trading Opportunities

I stated in the previous commentary that the significant long term significant RST monthly sell pattern would be triggered with an SPX monthly close below the low of the bull cycle high month which was a 2134.72 high and 2067.93 low. The cycle high was 5/20/15 and it closed in June at 2063.11 with the […]

Geometric Pattern Day Trading Symmetry

In my 8/24/15 Trading Markets commentary I said that the SPX made a bull market cycle high at 2134.72, with a monthly low of 2067.93, and a monthly close below that low would trigger the highly significant 7 point RST pattern that dates back to the 1998 bear market low The high SPX monthly close […]