Everyone Waiting As Reports Imminent
| PREVIOUS POSITIONS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market |
Long/Short |
Enter | size=2 color=000000>Exit | size=2 color=000000>P/L (per contract) |
| Sep. 99 T- bonds | Short | 117-05 | 116-28 | $281.25 |
| Sep. 99 S&Ps | Short | 1429 | 1410 | $4750 |
| Sep. 99 Swiss franc | Short | .6590 | .6585 | $62.50 |
CURRENT POSITIONS (AS OF 7/26/99) |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market | Date | Long/Short | Enter | Stop | size=2 color=000000>Target |
| Sep. 99 T-bonds | 7/23/99 | Long | 115-18 | 114-14 | 115-23 |
| Sep. 99 S&Ps | 7/22/99 | Long | 1370 | 1348 | 1367 |
| Sep. 99 Swiss franc | – | Flat | – | – | – |
Note: All price levels are approximate.
T-bond futures
The September futures [USU9>USU9] declined slightly today as traders await Greenspan’s testimony on Wednesday and Thursday’s Employment Cost
Index number.
We moved our target down to the 115 23/32 area because the market is looking weaker after today’s price action–it sold off this morning as existing home sales surged more than expected, but then recovered. We still believe the market is in a range, but that range is likely to form lower than we anticipated–in the 113 to 118 area.
 |
| Figure 1. September T-bond futures (USU9), 15-minute bar. Source: Quote.com.
|
S&P 500 futures
The September contract [SPU9>SPU9] dropped again today on continued weakness in bonds and the U.S. dollar. We think the market could be forming an intermediate top here, so we will try to exit tomorrow at the 1367 area as we await the economic data.
Volatility is picking up as well which indicates that we could have more
downside on the way.
 |
| Figure 2. September S&P futures (SPU9), 15-minute bar. Source: Quote.com.
|
Currency futures
The September Swiss franc [SFU9>SFU9] and Euro [ECU9>ECU9] rallied significantly today on remarks from German finance officials and more short covering by funds. We suspect many of these funds are establishing new long positions as they are detecting a change in the trend of this market.
The market will focus on Greenspan later this week. We remain of the sidelines after covering our
shorts Friday at the close.
Next scheduled update: Wednesday, July 28, 1999
(Check “Today’s Schedule” every day on our home page to find out about additional updates.)