Waiting For The Employment Report
| PREVIOUS POSITIONS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market |
Long/Short |
Enter | size=2 color=000000>Exit | size=2 color=000000>P/L (per contract) |
| Sep. 99 T- bonds | Short | 115-28 | 114-30 | $937.50 |
| Sep. 99 S&Ps | Short | 1429 | 1410 | $4750 |
| Sep. 99 Swiss franc | Short | .6590 | .6585 | $62.50 |
CURRENT POSITIONS (AS OF 8/2/99) |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market | Date | Long/Short | Enter | Stop | size=2 color=000000>Target |
| Sep. 99 T-bonds | – | Flat | – | – | – |
| Sep. 99 S&Ps | – | Flat | – | – | – |
| Sep. 99 Swiss franc | – | Flat | – | – | – |
Note: All price levels are approximate.
T-bond futures
The September futures [USU9>USU9] closed up slightly today after rallying substantially off the morning lows after the National Association of Purchasing Managers (NAPM) report was released. It came in lower than expected (showing less strength in the economy), which caused bears to cover some of their shorts. (Construction Spending was the other report today, but it was a non-event.
In Germany, the Bundesbank raised rates on its five-year notes after data over the last few weeks showed a pick-up in the Euroland economy. This caused German bonds to sell off last night, which in turn spilled over to the U.S. bonds. The report of interest is Friday’s Employment report, which will be widely watched for inflationary pressures.
S&P 500 futures
The September contract [SPU9>SPU9] was slightly higher after being up substantially earlier in the day. The bond market had backed off its highs, which gave the bears an excuse to come out. It was surprising to see the magnitude of selling that developed in the afternoon.
The market looks like it wants to go lower but we will remain on the sidelines for now. Friday’s Employment report will be key in determining if this latest correction is almost over or if something bigger is developing.
Currency futures
The September Swiss franc [SFU9>SFU9] and Euro [ECU9>ECU9] fell slightly today after consolidating last week’s gains. The sell-off began when the bond and stock markets reversed course after the NAPM was released. This gave the bulls a chance to come out and buy dollars. The market, however, will be looking closely at Friday’s Employment report. Stay tuned.
Next scheduled update: Wednesday, August 4, 1999
(Check “Today’s Schedule” every day on our home page to find out about additional updates.)