Gary Kaltbaum is an investment adviser with over 25 years experience, and is a Fox News Channel Business Contributor. Gary is the author of The Investors Edge. Mr. Kaltbaum is also the host of the nationally syndicated radio show “Investors Edge” on over 50 radio stations. Gary is also editor and publisher of “Gary Kaltbaum’s Trendwatch”… a weekly and monthly technical analysis research report for the institutional investor. If you would like a free trial to Gary’s Daily Market Alerts click here.
Greetings from St. Andrews Scotland…
A few important notes:
I believe what we are seeing is the market acknowledging that the economy has started to slow down…already! COMMODITY prices are being crushed. Analysts that have been saying strong demand caused them to go up will now have to scramble for another excuse on why they are headed down.
SILVER has now basically had a crash this week.This was a classic climax top as the herd jumped in heavy and very late to the party. The herd gets bigger and bigger as the drumbeats get louder and louder.
GOLD going along for the ride but not as much because it did not go up as much.
OIL prices were down almost 10% yesterday. OIL STOCKS have been topping out for weeks….lots of volume with no progress. . The commodity confirmed it yesterday.
The trade in commodities to the upside looks to have ended FOR NOW. But I warn you, You are going to see some vicious countertrend bounces that will tend to suck people in. They are now going be very tough to play. If at any time these areas have bounces into moving averages, they will be shortable.
The good outcome of these dropping prices,especially in oil, is that fundamentally, it is good for the consumer…so yesterday, a bunch of retail and travel stocks had a good day. Of course, transports were also strong because of oil dropping. I do not know if the anti-commodity trade continues but will be watching.
The DOLLAR looks to have put in a low. This was another herd trade as I don’t know of a dollar bull. I think the dollar is higher in the near term but know plenty of external factors affect it.
Market action is becoming quite wild…and I am not talking about just the recent downside. There is a lot of jello moving on the plate right now so be careful. The good news is that not one major index has gone below the all-important 50 day average. I will not start to turn market bearish until that occurs though I am bearish on selective areas. In addition to the COMMODITIES, I am still worried about how the financials and housing continue to lag badly. I would just realize that right now, leading sectors in the market are changing and you had better be aware because when the herd trade ends, you get what you get…think SILVER.
Gary Kaltbaum owns Kaltbaum Capital Management, LLC (“KCM”), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The opinions expressed herein are those of Mr. Kaltbaum and may not reflect those of KCM. The information offered in this publication is general information that does not take into account the individual circumstances, financial situation or individual needs of an investor. The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we cannot assure its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Any reference to past performance is not to be implied or construed as a guarantee of future results.