From 1990 to 1997, Kevin Haggerty served as Senior Vice President for Equity Trading at Fidelity Capital Markets, Boston, a division of Fidelity Investments. He was responsible for all U.S. institutional Listed, OTC and Option trading in addition to all major Exchange Floor Executions. For a free trial to Kevin’s Daily Trading Report, please click here.
The SPX made new cycle 1174.72 high and 1174.17 close Tues (3/23), which is in line with that 3/21 time symmetry outlined in the previous commentary (3/18) The 3/21 time date was Sun, so it carried over to Mon, and with the +/- 3 day variance this high is in sync with the time symmetry. Also, the current rally off the 1044.50 key price and time zone low is now 32 days old and +12.5% ,so there is additional time symmetry this Fri which is 34 days (Fib) and the 2.618 Fib ratio of the 13 day decline from the 1/19/10 1150.45 high to the 1044.50 low on 2/5/10
Once the 1150.45 1/19/10 high got taken out the odds obviously became much higher that the SPX will hit the 1229 .618RT zone to 1576 from the 667 cycle low. That will be a +84% advance from the 667 3/6/09 low in a secular bear market, but unlike the +105% gain from 10/10/02 to 10/11/07 the political, economic, and financial environment is obviously not even remotely as favorable as it was during that first bull cycle in this secular bear market that started in 2000.
The technical condition remains very extended, and there is a negative 5RSI divergence versus the SPX new highs, so a pullback of at least 5.0% is still expected before the SPX can sustain a move to that 1229 .618RT zone.
The road to socialism that Obama has this country on is an economic and stock market disaster waiting to happen, which will be far worse than anything we have seen so far. However, that depends on the elections in 2010, and 2012, when the country has a chance to change direction.
Have a good trading day!
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