What’s Up, What’s Down: Focus on Grains

Comments for Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Looking Ahead to Today by Reflecting Back at Tuesday’s Price Action


Crop Production, USDA Supply/Demand reports released today: Higher closes Tuesday for rough rice and soyoil while lower for soybeans, soymeal, oats, Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat along with corn. Ahead of the crop and supply/demand reports. All of the wheat are now at the lower end of their respective support areas not looking good for the bulls at this time with Chicago making its lowest low and close in over a month. Corn closed lower continuing its choppy pattern along with the rest of the grains back in a support area with no real direction in the short term.

However, corn continues to show me how strong this market is in the face of bearish news throughout most of the grain producing countries. Also, corn has a gap at 403 in the May contract and, as I’ve mentioned many times before, throughout history grains fill over 90% of their gaps sooner or later. Rice made its lowest low since the end of June ’09 but did rally to settle higher in a very bearish looking market.

Oats closed right at 225, basis the May contract, at the bottom of a BEAR TRIANGLE also making a triple bottom that is begging to be taken out in a strong downtrending market. Beans made its lowest low in a month before rallying to settle near its session’s highs slightly lower on the day but still bearish overall. Meal had its lowest low since April’09 also before also rallying to close near its session’s highs slightly lower on the day. Oil, however, settled slightly higher while still in a strong resistance area. BUY SIGNAL FOR SOYOIL. SELL SIGNALS FOR ROUGH RICE, OATS, SOYBEANS AND SOYMEAL. CALL FOR DETAILS!

Wheat Chart

Soy Beans Chart


Higher closes for live and feeder cattle along with pork bellies but lower for lean hogs. The cattle and feeders continued their moves higher with cattle making its highest high and close since May ’09 again while the feeders made another new CONTRACT HIGH CLOSE for the sixth consecutive trading session. Hogs settled lower again(3rd session in a row) with 7250, basis the April contract, a key area to hold with support in the 7000-7100 area. Bellies higher this time holding its support area so far. BUY SIGNALS FOR LIVE AND FEEDER CATTLE, HOGS AND PORK BELLIES. CALL FOR DETAILS!

Lean Hog Chart

REMINDER: March/June Currency Futures Rollover began Monday, March 8!!

Read the balance of my morning comments, including the Metals, Softs, Energies and Grains, at my website. For my complete coverage, visit my commentary page at www.markethead.com.

Rick Alexander has been a broker and analyst in the futures business for over thirty years. He is a Vice-President for Sales and Trading at the Zaner Group (www.zaner.com) a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. If you would like a free booklet explaining the charts mentioned above, email Rick at ralexander@zaner.com.

The information in this Report and the opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by Rick Alexander or the Zaner Group of the purchase or sale of any futures or options. Futures and options trading is speculative in nature and involves risks. Spread trading is not necessarily less risky than outright positions. Futures and options trading is not suitable for all investors.

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