The Focus Will Be On Semiconductors Tomorrow… Here’s Why

The
market fell to selling pressure today after opening higher
on
positive earnings news from tech giants Intel and Microsoft. Volume was strong
as price action held a downtrend from open to close. Though many tech issues
ended positive, the overall markets headed lower with mixed earnings guidance
from key companies. Standing out, financials JP Morgan and Merrill Lynch were
both higher on better-than-expected profits, though closed the session in
negative territory at the bottom of their daily ranges. The semiconductors
closed nicely higher in the middle of their range. The Dow and S&P 500 are now
just below their 200-day simple moving averages, and the Volatility Index
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hit a fresh 10-month low before closing out in the upper portion of its daily
range.

Tomorrow will be the last
trading day of the week due to the Good Friday holiday, but may be a big day for
chip stocks with KLA-Tencor, Xilinx, and PMC Sierra announcing after the
close.   

The Dow Jones
Industrial Average

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closed -1.72
%
at 8,257.61. The S&P 500
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closed -1.22% at 879.91. The
Nasdaq

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closed +0.26% at 1,394.72.

Closing in the green today were
semiconductors
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, +3.41%, gold and silver
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, +0.68%, and software
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, +0.42%.

Biggest losers were
healthcare
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, -4.41%, consumer
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, -2.42%, biotechnology
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, -2.09%, and
banks

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, -1.58%.

In economic news, housing
starts
came in at 1.78 million vs. expectations of 1.7 million, building
permits
came in at 1.685 million vs. expectations of 1.75 million, CPI
came in at 0.3% vs. expectations of 0.4%, and core CPI came in at 0.0%
vs. expectations of 0.2%. 

The Ten Year Note  was
+065 at 114 105.

The US dollar was -0.76
at 99.29.

Volume was above
average
, with the NYSE coming in at 1,523,186,000 and the Nasdaq at
1,509,701,000.

Market breadth was mostly
negative
, with NYSE declining issues over advancing issues by a ratio of
1.19, and down volume over up volume by a 2.04 ratio. Nasdaq declining issues
over advancing issues came in at 1.19, and up volume beat down volume by a 1.49
ratio.

The

VIX
was +0.05 at 26.09. The

TRIN
was +0.79 at 1.72
.

Leading the Dow down were:

Coca-cola
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,
-6.18% at 39.90, SBC Communications
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, -4.51% at 20.29, 3M Co.

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, -3.47% at 129.00, Johnson & Johnson
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, -2.845 at
54.39, Citigroup
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, -2.52% at 38.26, and Boeing
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,
-2.38% at 26.64. 

Stocks in the news:

Leading today’s earnings action
is chip giants Intel
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, +5.95% at 18.15, which beat its
first-quarter earnings expectations by $0.02 with profits of $0.14 per share,
and Texas Instruments
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, +10.33% at 19.00, which beat its
first-quarter earnings by $0.01 with profits of $0.07 per share.

Also in the chip biz,
Motorola

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, -1.38% at 7.38, lowered its estimates for the second
half of 2003 despite expecting sales growth to increase.

Software kingpin Microsoft
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, +1.21% at 24.91, beat its third-quarter earnings expectations by
$0.02 profits of $0.26 per share.

Investment banker JP Morgan
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, -1.37% at 26.50, beat its first-quarter earnings expectations by
$0.19 with profits of $0.69 per share.

Auto maker Ford Motor
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,
+10.53% at 9.23, announced earnings $0.24 ahead of expectations with profits of
$0.45 per share. The company also announced that it expects second-quarter
earnings to come in below current expectations.

Broker Merrill Lynch
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,
-0.25% at 39.75, beat its first-quarter earnings expectations by $0.11 with
profits of $0.72 per share.

Construction and agricultural
machinery company Caterpillar
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, -1.79% at 51.41, beat its
first-quarter earnings by $0.11 with profits of $0.37 per share.

Tobacco company Altria
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,
-2.31% at 31.70, beat its first-quarter expectations by $0.01 with profits of
$1.07 per share.

Aerospace and defense company
General Dynamics
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, +3.88% at 58.28, beat its first-quarter
earnings by $0.09 with profits of $1.11 per share.

Motorcycle maker Harley
Davidson

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, -0.18% at 42.55, beat its first-quarter earnings by
$0.11 with profits of $0.61 per share.

Coffee retailer Starbucks
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, -3.77% at 25.73, was downgraded by Lehman Brothers to “underweight”
from “equal weight”.

Bank of New York
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,
+1.00% at 24.17, missed its first-quarter earnings expectations by $0.01 with
profits of $0.41 per share.

Computer peripheral maker
Avocent Corp.

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, +15.27% at 28.68, beat its first-quarter earnings
expectations by $0.02 with profits of $0.29.

Regional bank MBNA Corp.
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, -0.73% at 17.49, was downgraded by UBS Warburg to “reduce” from
“neutral”.

Appliance maker Maytag
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,
-14.04% at 18.79, missed its first-quarter earnings by $0.05with profits of
$0.52 per share.


danielb@tradingmarkets.com