Downside risk still seems to be greater
Over the last few weeks it has seemed that the
biggest movers on a daily basis have been stocks that have missed or had some
kind of bad news – and they have been fairly regular. I have noticed very little
buying excitement which has translated to strong one day gains in individual
stocks. An associate of mine, Peter Pierce, also noted this action in his firm’s
most recent weekly newsletter (www.avmadvisor.com).
This inspired me to quantify what I was seeing. I ran some tests on the S&P 500…
Since the S&P 500 hit its July bottom (on a closing basis) on the 17th, the
following stocks have had upside days of at least 10%:
AAPL, HCA, NVDA (twice), SNDK, MYL, PMTC, ADBE, MCO, CI – total = 9 (10 if you
count NVDA twice).
Since July 17th, the following S&P 500 stocks have had downside days of at least
10%:
ADCT, UIS, YHOO, JCI, CTXS, PMCS, AMD, BRCM, UPS, AV, ROK, GLW, AMZN, DOW, TLAB,
AET, PKI, AVP, WFMI, EK, SANM – total = 21
Not sure how significant or predictive this is, but I found it interesting that
while the S&P 500 has risen about 3.6% over that time period, downside risk in
individual issues seems to be quite a bit greater than upside reward.
The market still appears treacherous.
Best of luck with your trading,
Rob Hanna
For those who may be looking to expand their
knowledge beyond just market timing, my
Hanna ETF Money Flow System utilizes the VIX in generating trading
signals for spread trades.
Rob Hanna is the principal of a money
management firm located in Massachusetts. He has spent the last several years
developing and refining methods for trading in stocks across multiple time
frames. He selects stocks using both fundamental and technical criteria, and
then trades them using technical analysis techniques.