Stalking a Short Position in the QQQQ

The Nasdaq Composite snapped its
three-day losing streak last Friday, but its small 0.3% rebound recovered only
20% of its previous day’s loss. The S&P 500
also gained 0.3%, but the modest advance was enough to recover all of its loss
from the prior session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average began to lose its
recent relative strength by closing less than 0.1% lower. The small-cap Russell
2000 and S&P Midcap 400 indices led the broad market with gains of 0.9% and 0.7%
respectively. Each of the major indices finished in the upper third of their
intraday ranges.

After two consecutive “distribution days” in the Nasdaq last
week, Friday’s recovery attempt was a positive sign, but the significantly lower
turnover that accompanied it was not. Total volume in the Nasdaq was 11% lighter
than the previous day’s level, indicating a lack of institutional participation
in the rally attempt. Lower volume gains that follow higher volume selloffs
indicate a temporary break in the selling pressure, as opposed to fresh buying
interest. Obviously, this is not encouraging for the Nasdaq. Total volume in the
NYSE actually increased by 1%, but the marginal volume increase was not enough
to label the session as a bullish “accumulation day.” Market internals were
positive, but not by an overwhelming margin. Advancing volume in the Nasdaq
exceeded declining volume by 3 to 2, while the NYSE ratio was positive by 2.3 to
1.

Less than two weeks after bouncing off support of its 50-day
moving average and jumping to a new six-year high, the Nasdaq Composite is once
again testing pivotal support of its 50-day MA. The Nasdaq actually touched its
50-day MA on Friday morning, but closed above it. Over the next several days,
traders and investors will definitely be focused on whether or not the 50-day MA
once again “does its thing” by enabling the Nasdaq to rally off its support. But
unlike the initial bounce (resistance) has been created that was not a factor
when the Nasdaq was merely consolidating and correcting by time throughout
December. When the index corrected in the latter half of last week, its
inability to hold support at the 2,470 level was bearish. Expect any rally
attempt into the prior high of 2,470 to be met with selling pressure from
traders who became trapped in the recent failed breakout. The red horizontal
line on the daily chart below marks the Nasdaq’s short-term resistance level,
while the blue horizontal line illustrates the next support level if the index
breaks below the 50-day MA:

The Nasdaq 100 Index, which is more concentrated on tech
stocks than the broader-based Nasdaq Composite, is showing a similar chart
pattern. Like the Nasdaq Composite, a break below last Friday’s low in the
Nasdaq 100 would coincide with a break below its 50-day moving average. As such,
the Nasdaq 100 Tracking Stock
(
QQQQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) may be setting up for a short sale
if it breaks below last Friday’s low:

Waiting for a breakdown below the 50-day MA before selling
short forces the Nasdaq 100 to confirm its failed breakout, but more aggressive
traders could also consider selling short a partial position of QQQQ on a
rally into resistance at the 44.80 area. Be aware, however, that a short entry
into strength carries a greater degree of risk.

If you happen to take a short position in the Nasdaq 100,
don’t forget that both the ProShares Ultra QQQ
(
QLD |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) and the UltraShort QQQ
ProShares
(
QID |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) may be better alternatives than selling short QQQQ. QLD
offers more “bang for your buck” because it is leveraged at a 2 to 1 ratio to
the Nasdaq 100. If, for example, the Nasdaq 100 drops 1%, QLD will fall
approximately 2%. Obviously, this works in both directions. QID is similar to
QLD because it is also leveraged at a 2 to 1 ratio, but it also is inversely
correlated to the direction of the Nasdaq 100 Index. Buying QID is essentially
the same as selling short QLD. The ProShares Short QQQ
(
PSQ |
Quote |
Chart |
News |
PowerRating) is also
inversely correlated to the direction of the Nasdaq 100, but is not leveraged
like QID. Because traditional retirement accounts such as IRAs are non-marginable,
they do not enable investors to sell short. However, the UltraShort ProShares
ETFs, such as QID and PSQ, offer a great way to get around that issue. A
complete list of the ProShares Funds can be found by downloading our free

Morpheus ETF Roundup
guide.

For the past four days, the S&P 500 has been trading in
narrow, sideways range, right at resistance of its prior high from last
December. Clearly, its chart pattern now looks a lot better than the Nasdaq’s,
but rapid downward momentum could set in if it fails to break out to a new high
within the next several days. A break below last week’s low of 1,424 would most
likely trigger a selloff that takes the S&P down to support of its 50-day MA,
presently at the 1,408 level:

Corporate earnings season is now kicking into high gear, as
more than one hundred companies in the S&P 500 will show their quarterly report
cards to the world within the next two weeks. Tech giants Yahoo! and eBay are
among the slew of companies reporting within the next few days, so we’ll see if
they receive the same dismal reaction that Apple and Intel did last week.

Open ETF positions:

Deron Wagner is the head trader
of Morpheus Capital Hedge Fund and founder of Morpheus Trading Group (morpheustrading.com),
which he launched in 2001. Wagner appears on his best-selling video, Sector
Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002), and is co-author of both The
Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader
(McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and
Yahoo! FinanceVision. He is also a frequent guest speaker at various trading and
financial conferences around the world. For a free trial to the full version of
The Wagner Daily or to learn about Deron’s other services, visit

morpheustrading.com or send an e-mail to

deron@morpheustrading.com .